Dubai’s property market: Hotter than July, but cooling in the shade?

July 2025 continued Dubai’s record-breaking streak in real estate, but some signs suggest the market may be shifting into a more measured pace. While sales volumes and mortgage activity reached new highs, growing inventory, softer resale activity, and lower loan-to-value ratios hint at a maturing market dynamic where buyers are becoming more selective.

Price Growth Steadies After June Surge

Following June’s 1.71% rise, property prices in Dubai increased by a more moderate 0.99% in July, bringing the average price to AED 1,625 per sq ft. This places current values 31.7% above the 2014 market peak and nearly 100% above the October 2020 market low.

• Apartments: Price growth is slowing slightly.
• Villas & Townhouses: Momentum remains stronger, supporting ongoing end-user demand.

Sales Volumes Smash Records Again

July saw 20,116 transactions, up 21.3% from June, continuing 2025’s pattern of every month setting a new all-time high.

Residential properties accounted for 93.7% of sales.

Commercial properties saw office space lead the way (2.2% of total sales).

Year-to-date volumes have exceeded 119,000 transactions—23% higher than this time in 2024—putting us on track for more than 200,000 sales in 2025.

Off-Plan Still Dominates – But Buyers Are Becoming Choosier

Off-plan transactions jumped 28.3% to 12,595 sales, raising their market share to 72.1% (after adjusting for technicalities in registration types).

• DAMAC took the lead with 1,375 transactions, led by Riverside Views and DAMAC Islands projects.
• Sobha followed closely, with strong sales in Sobha Solis, Sobha Orbis, and Skyvue developments.
• Binghatti rounded out the top three, heavily driven by Binghatti Skyrise in Business Bay.

While developer launches remain strong—over 13,800 units worth AED 38 billion in July alone—projects that once sold out in hours are now taking longer to sell. The market is less hype-driven, with buyers taking time to compare offerings and look for genuine value.

Resales Show Signs of Softening

Resale transactions fell 5.2% month-on-month to 5,564, making up 27.7% of the market. Off-plan resales dropped to 19.9% of total sales—a notable decline from April’s 33% peak.

Why the slowdown?

• Developers’ attractive incentives and flexible payment plans are making direct-from-developer purchases more appealing.
• Resale listings priced at a premium are facing stiffer competition.
• This shift underscores the need for realistic pricing strategies for investors aiming to exit early.

Mortgage Market Sets New Records – But Affordability Is in Focus

Mortgage activity hit a record 4,891 loans in July, up 9.2% from June.

• New purchase loans: 45.6% of all mortgages (average loan AED 1.8m, LTV 73.7%).
• Refinance & equity release: 38.3%, up 7.5% from June.
• Bulk mortgages: Down to 16.1%, with major activity in Rabdan Building, Shorooq Land 2, and England Cluster.

While mortgage demand remains strong, lower LTV ratios indicate affordability pressures and higher upfront cash requirements for buyers.

Market Outlook: Sustainability Over Speed

Dubai’s property market remains fundamentally strong, with transaction volumes and prices both on upward trajectories. However:

• The pace of new supply—nearly 93,000 units launched year-to-date—means developers will need to prioritise quality, differentiation, and realistic pricing.
• Buyers are shifting towards value-driven decisions, slowing the “sell-out in hours” frenzy.
• The mortgage market is healthy, but affordability will be a key factor to watch in the months ahead.

Bottom line: Dubai’s market is still hot, but the smartest players—buyers, sellers, and developers alike—are moving with precision rather than just speed.

Data and insights in this article are sourced from the Property Monitor July 2025 Report. Property Monitor is the UAE’s leading real estate intelligence platform, providing in-depth market analytics, transaction tracking, and price index reporting. Their data is trusted by government entities, developers, financial institutions, and industry professionals to deliver accurate, real-time insights into Dubai’s dynamic property market.

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