As we close out Q1 2025, Dubai’s real estate market continues to defy expectations with strong price growth, surging off-plan demand, and record-setting March transaction volumes. But as with all rapid growth, it raises a pressing question: is this momentum sustainable—or are we nearing a market peak?
According to the latest Property Monitor Report (March 2025), the Dubai property market saw prices rise by 1.88% in just one month, bringing the average price per square foot to AED 1,534—24.3% above the previous 2014 peak. This marks 49 consecutive months of year-on-year price growth, a rare and remarkable run in any real estate cycle.
For those considering buying property in Dubai, the current market presents both enticing opportunities and potential risks associated with overheated growth.
The Off-Plan Premium Phenomenon
One of the key drivers of this price acceleration is the ongoing dominance of off-plan sales, which now make up 67.2% of the market. These properties are often commanding premium prices of up to 85% over their ready counterparts in areas like Motor City and Dubai Sports City. Quality, modern features, and attractive payment plans continue to lure both investors and end users to new developments.
Top developers like Binghatti, Emaar, and DAMAC are leading the charge, with Binghatti alone recording over 1,000 off-plan transactions across its multiple projects. The pipeline is growing—but so is the risk of saturation if demand cools.
Investors are flocking to off-plan property in Dubai, attracted by flexible payment plans and the promise of high returns amid the ongoing real estate boom.
Slight Dip in Transactions, Yet a Record Month
Despite a 5.7% drop in transaction volume compared to February, March still posted the highest sales for any March on record, highlighting the market’s resilience. With 15,223 sales, 93.7% of which were residential, this small monthly dip was attributed more to fewer trading days during the Eid break than to market weakness.
Resale Market Expands—A Sign of Caution?
Resale activity rose to 42.8% in March, with off-plan resales making up 29.3% of those deals. Many of these properties are nearing completion, but some are still 15+ months away from handover—a trend that could indicate either increased speculation or early signs of investor nervousness and profit-taking.
Mortgages Shift Towards New Purchases
Mortgage volumes dipped by 2.3%, but interestingly, loans for new purchases rose to 56.9%—a positive signal of confidence from homebuyers. Bulk mortgage activity declined, suggesting developers and larger investors may be slowing down their borrowing as a precaution.
What’s Next: Stability or Overheating?
We are now in month 53 of the current market upcycle, with average monthly appreciation at 1.2%. Property Monitor’s Chief Operating Officer Zhann Jochinke warns that if monthly gains continue to exceed 2%, particularly in the off-plan segment, it may signal overheating.
To maintain a balanced market, stakeholders are urged to focus on diverse product offerings, realistic pricing, and controlled release of new inventory. The fundamentals remain strong—but discipline will determine if this momentum is sustainable or if we're speeding toward saturation.
Key March 2025 Highlights:
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Prices up 1.88% MoM | AED 1,534/sq ft
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Median prices: Apartments AED 1.31M | Villas AED 7.09M | Townhouses AED 3.04M
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15,223 total transactions – record for March
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Off-plan sales dominate with 67.2% market share
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Resale transactions up, off-plan resales growing
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New mortgage loans account for 56.9% of activity
The surge in demand for luxury property in Dubai, particularly in areas like Palm Jumeirah and Downtown, has driven prices to unprecedented levels.
Dubai’s real estate market is still in growth mode, but the rhythm is shifting. Whether we’re witnessing the tail-end of the boom or the beginning of a more stable, mature phase will become clearer in the months ahead.
All statistics are supported in the March 2024 Property Monitor Report.
📊 All statistics are provided in the March 2024 Property Monitor Report.
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