2026 Price Forecasts: Will Dubai See a Correction or Continued Surge?

As analysts debate the 2026 outlook, many investors assessing whether to continue buying property in Dubai are closely watching price trends and supply pipelines. After a record-breaking run through 2024 and 2025, Dubai’s real estate market has entered a more measured phase. With prices now sitting over 30% above their 2014 peak and transaction volumes still robust, investors and homeowners alike are wondering what lies ahead for 2026.

Will we see a correction or will Dubai’s momentum continue into another year of growth?

At Exclusive Links Real Estate, we’ve been part of Dubai’s market evolution since 2005. Drawing on experience and the latest insights including data from the ValuStrat Q3 2025 Real Estate Review - here’s a closer look at where the property market may be heading.

The Market’s Current Position

Dubai’s property market remains one of the most active in the world, but the pace of appreciation is starting to ease. According to ValuStrat, residential capital values rose 21.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with villa prices continuing to outperform apartments - though the gap is narrowing as affordability pressures increase.

Off-plan continues to dominate, accounting for around 77% of all transactions. Developers have maintained a steady stream of new project launches, supported by strong investor appetite and favourable payment plans. Meanwhile, ready sales have softened slightly, reflecting a natural cooling after two years of accelerated growth.

What’s emerging now is a more balanced, data-driven marketplace - one less defined by speculation and more by genuine end-user and investor demand.

Supply, Demand and Economic Strength

With major launches planned across key communities, demand for off plan property in Dubai will play a crucial role in determining whether prices stabilise or continue to climb.

Dubai’s economy continues to provide strong underpinnings for the property sector. The city’s population surpassed 4 million in 2025, with nearly 194,000 new residents arriving in the first three quarters alone - a remarkable influx that continues to drive housing demand.

On the supply side, approximately 64,000 new residential units are expected to be handed over by the end of 2025, with a similar number forecast for 2026. The majority of this new stock is concentrated in emerging and mid-market areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai South, Business Bay and Mohammed Bin Rashid City offering more accessible price points for end-users.

The broader macroeconomic picture remains positive. The UAE Central Bank forecasts GDP growth of 5.3% for 2026, supported by diversified economic drivers, ongoing investment in infrastructure and a stable inflation rate of around 1.5%.

With global monetary policy shifting, a gradual decline in interest rates is also expected to support mortgage-backed buying, especially among first-time buyers who were priced out during the peak of 2024’s surge.

Will 2026 Bring a Market Correction?

The term “correction” often sparks unnecessary alarm - but in reality, it can simply mean a market returning to equilibrium after a period of rapid growth.

Dubai’s real estate market has matured significantly since the early 2010s and a major downturn appears unlikely given today’s fundamentals. However, we may see:

• Moderation in price growth, particularly in areas that have seen heavy appreciation since 2021.
• Stabilisation in villa values, which have nearly doubled in some prime communities.
• Increased supply entering the mid-market bracket, giving buyers more options and easing pressure on prices.

Developers are already responding strategically - launching projects with more flexible payment plans, smaller ticket sizes and attractive post-handover structures that appeal to genuine buyers rather than short-term speculators.

What the Data Suggests

The ValuStrat Q3 2025 Report indicates that growth momentum is easing, not reversing. The report shows steady month-on-month price increases across both apartments and villas, suggesting the market is cooling in a healthy way.

Rental values have also stabilised, offering yields that remain attractive by international standards. This stabilisation is key - it signals that while prices may not surge at the same pace, the market remains fundamentally sound.

For investors, that means 2026 could be a year of sustainable growth, driven by strong rental returns, population growth and Dubai’s continued appeal as a global hub for business and lifestyle.

End User Confidence & Investor Interest

Confidence in Dubai’s property market is also supported by government-led reforms - from long-term residency options like the Golden Visa, to ongoing regulatory transparency through the Dubai Land Department and RERA.

Dubai continues to attract global high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors, not only for luxury real estate but also for its expanding mid-market and suburban communities. The city’s reputation as a tax-efficient, stable and lifestyle-rich destination keeps global demand strong.

Given the mixed forecasts, working with experienced real estate brokers in Dubai can provide buyers and investors with clearer guidance on how to navigate 2026 market movements.

Exclusive Links Perspective

After 20 years in Dubai real estate, we’ve seen every cycle and what defines the current one is resilience and maturity. The days of speculation-driven spikes have given way to a more data-led, investor-savvy marketplace.

Looking ahead to 2026, our outlook is measured:

• Slight softening in some high-growth areas may occur as new supply enters.
• Stable to moderate price growth is likely across established communities.
• Rental yields will remain healthy, particularly for well-managed properties in desirable locations.

At Exclusive Links, our role is to help clients navigate this evolving landscape whether buying, selling, or managing properties for long-term ROI.

So, will 2026 bring a correction or continued surge? Most likely, neither extreme. Instead, Dubai’s property market appears set for a period of stability, where measured growth replaces record-breaking jumps.

With strong population inflows, steady economic growth and a maturing regulatory framework, the outlook remains positive. For serious investors and end-users alike, 2026 looks to be a year defined not by volatility, but by confidence, consistency and opportunity.

📌 For professional advice on how to position your property investment for 2026, contact the Exclusive Links team - a trusted name in Dubai real estate since 2005.